The likelihood of living a long life in affluent Northern Virginia varies greatly based on race, ethnicity and even neighborhood, according to a new study from the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University.
The report reveals deep disparities in early death rates across Northern Virginia, both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Northern Virginia Health Foundation commissioned the report, which was released on June 28.
The report examined rates of premature death, defined as death occurring before age 75, and deaths that could have been prevented or treated. It focused on two periods: The four years before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic from 2015 to 2019, and the peak of the pandemic from 2020 to 2021.
Overall, the report found that the risk of dying before age 75 for Northern Virginia residents in the years before the pandemic was significantly lower than the statewide average, “signaling the good health that generally exists across the region.”
However, death rates varied dramatically by geography as well as race and ethnicity. For example, Black residents were 44% more likely to die before 75 compared to white residents. The risk was even higher for those living in what the study called “marginalized neighborhoods.”
Before the pandemic, the highest rate of premature deaths was seen in Prince William County, concentrated in the Manassas and Woodbridge-Dumfries areas. The lowest premature death rates were seen in Arlington County.
The COVID-19 pandemic further widened those gap, the study found.
Neighborhoods that were already experiencing low life expectancy, poorer health outcomes and lower socioeconomic conditions — which the study termed “islands of disadvantage” — became “hot spots” during the pandemic, with many more people dying prematurely from COVID-19 and other causes than elsewhere.
“For people of color, the pandemic made a bad situation terrible,” said Dr. Steven Woolf, the study’s lead and director emeritus of the VCU Center on Society and Health.
The probability of dying from COVID-19 was overall at its highest in Prince William County, according to the study. Residents there were 77% more likely to die from COVID-19 than residents of neighboring Fairfax County.
“Poverty was a major factor,” Woolf said in the news release. “We found 18 census tracts in Northern Virginia with higher poverty rates than in the Balkan and Caucasus countries.”
Below, see premature death rates for each jurisdiction. The study’s authors note that disadvantaged neighborhoods are often situated just blocks away from more affluent ones, but that education, poverty and other health factors differ dramatically.
Alexandria City
Arlington County
Fairfax County
Loudoun County
Prince William County
